| Dont bet on it yet. The
French government has caved, pledging help for those who
have the power to choke off the economy by blocking oil
refineries or road junctions. Tony Blair has promised
nothing, but watch his budget speech in November for the
tacit deal he has probably struck with his rebellious
hauliers. German chancellor Schràder will surely unveil
something soon--perhaps relief for heating oil or gas
vouchers for the poorer folks, the SPD's traditional
clientele. Nor should this come as a surprise. The
cost of fuel is the "bread price" of the 21st century.
Let it soar, and the people will riot, just as they did
in the 18th century when they were famously told by
Marie-Antoinette: "Let them eat cake." The lady
ultimately paid with her head for this quip; democratic
governments face not just one, but two threats to their
health.
One is the enormous vulnerability of the modern "flow
economy." Block the strategic nodes, and you block
everything else: critical supplies, people driving to
work, indeed, the very ability of a nation to feed
itself. And you don't need to rouse the whole people, a
thousand trucks will do.
The second problem is that today's elected rulers are
not like Louis XIV. You don't have to unleash a
revolution to place them on the guillotine. For Tony,
Gerd et al. it is death by ballot. Hence, the
vulnerability of our monarchs who reign not by the grace
of God, but by the consent of the people. And they are
the real bosses. High prices for oil will not go away
soon because the fundamental imbalance between demand
and supply is here to stay.
So watch our leaders as they hold up the principle
while sinning against it in practice. Watch for
strategically placed goodies to those who matter: their
core voters and the folks who are in control of the
choke points. |